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Oil Forecast an Interim Update
Friday, February 5, 2016

Calcbench thought that we would give an update (for those of you wondering) on how our forecast of 4th Quarter revenues for oil services companies has fared. The story appeared first on our blog, and then was picked up by Fortune Magazine senior editor, Jennifer Reingold in this piece

There are a few things that need explaining. First, we forecast the 4th quarter ONLY. We also excluded the sales that the firm reports from equity affiliates and the dreaded other category. In the case of Exxon Mobil, this has been a little problematic. In their annual and quarterly statements, Exxon reports Equity Affiliate revenue and other revenue in separate line items. But, in their preliminary report, the firm did not break out the results and has reported total Revenues of $59.8 Billion in the 4th quarter - all sales are lumped into one line item. If we were to adjust for the equity affiliate revenues, our forecast would be a lot closer. It will be once the full results are announced later this month.

For what it’s worth, we have called the company to get some clarity, but our message has not been returned.

Excluding Exxon from the results, our industry forecast looks fairly strong. Of the firms that have reported, Calcbench forecast a total 4th Quarter 2015 revenue of $102 Billion. The Actual revenues that have come in are at $100.4 Billion. So, we weren’t gloomy enough, and our forecast was “off” by only 1.6%.

Here are the data that we have so far and remember, when in doubt, ‘Calcbench it’!

Company FORECAST Revenue 4th Quarter 2015 ACTUAL revenue 4th Quarter 2015 % Difference from FORECAST Dollar DIFF FORECAST
Exxon Mobil Corp ** $56,737,640,668 $59,807,000,000 -5.1% -$3,069,359,332
Chevron Corp $28,082,095,317 $28,014,000,000 0.2% $68,095,317
Phillips 66 $22,035,627,767 $21,893,000,000 0.7% $142,627,767
Valero Energy Corp/TX $19,451,452,223 $18,777,000,000 3.6% $674,452,223
Marathon Petroleum Corp $16,657,670,311 $15,607,000,000 6.7% $1,050,670,311
Conocophillips $6,413,326,385 $6,293,000,000 1.9% $120,326,385
Tesoro Corp /NEW/ $6,694,136,074 $6,273,000,000 6.7% $421,136,074
Devon Energy Corp/DE $3,819,362,596 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Chesapeake Energy Corp $2,812,981,818 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Eog Resources Inc $2,031,772,559 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
PBF Energy Inc. $2,809,298,976 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Occidental Petroleum Corp /DE/ $2,890,883,606 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
HollyFrontier Corp $3,114,814,217 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Anadarko Petroleum Corp $1,279,407,007 $2,053,000,000 -37.7% -$773,592,993
Western Refining, Inc. $2,192,698,902 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Apache Corp $1,230,261,625 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Marathon Oil Corp $1,446,406,765 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting
Hess Corp $1,412,736,584 $1,474,000,000 -4.2% -$61,263,416
Cvr Energy Inc $1,232,844,254 To Be Reported Awaiting Awaiting

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