After all, U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico are still a wild guessing game — but tariffs against China are here, and seem to be going nowhere but up. China has now responded in kind, imposing tariffs of its own on various U.S. imports and even blacklisting some companies entirely. 

Just last week, for example, we had a post on the predicament of Illumina ($ILMN), a genomics company that received 7 percent of 2024 revenue from China. Beijing announced a ban on Illumina imports last week in response to U.S. tariffs; today the company lowered its 2025 earnings guidance and announced $100 million in planned cost-cuts to offset that squeeze.

So what other U.S. companies might face similar pressures, as Beijing ratchets up its retaliatory measures? 

To answer that question Calcbench cracked open our ever-handy Segments and Rollforwards database, looking for U.S.-headquartered filers who reported China as a geographic segment in 2024. We found 174, ranging from Silicon Valley tech giants to tiny startups working on mineral extraction technology. Then we sorted them by total revenue and divided their China revenues into that number, to identify which firms are most dependent on the Chinese market.

Table 1, below, shows large firms (those with at least $1 billion in 2024 revenue) ranked by their dependency on the Chinese market.

These are the firms that presumably would have the most to lose if China imposes retaliatory tariffs or other economic restrictions on them. We have no idea whether such retaliation actually will happen; we’re data geeks, not international relations nerds. But this one example of how financial analysts could use Calcbench to model the potential pain of a trade war.

Your answers also depend on how you scope the question. For example, Table 2, below, looks at all firms with at least $250 million in 2024 revenue (so, a much larger group than Table 1), sorted by dependency on China revenue.

And if you just ask, “Which firms have the greatest China revenue in absolute dollars?” you get Table 3, below.

Those are staggering sums of money, but the firms reporting those numbers aren’t necessarily the same firms we saw in Table 1, with the highest concentration risk. In fact, only two firms are on both Table 1 and Table 3: Qualcomm ($QCOM) and Advanced Micro Devices ($ADM).

If you’d like to see our complete list of 174 firms, we’ve shared the entire thing as an Excel spreadsheet on DropBox.

Also, as always, we need to include the disclaimer that this list only reflects companies that report China as a geographic business segment. Plenty of firms do get revenue from China, but don’t report those numbers as a segment of their own; the numbers are rolled into some larger segment such as Asia-Pacific, China and Japan, or even just a single global segment. There’s no easy way to disaggregate those revenues. 

In other words, this list isn’t perfect — but it ain’t shabby either, and it does give a solid glimpse into which firms might start suffering shrapnel wounds as the trade wars intensify. The data’s all there, if you just use Calcbench.