Delta Air Lines ($DAL) roared down the runway of Q3 earnings season today, with revenue up briskly, total costs up even more, and fuel costs specifically up so much you don’t even want to look at the line-item. 

Delta has been the first to file quarterly earnings for several years now, and today’s earnings release did not disappoint. It’s a fascinating glimpse into how a large, complicated business is navigating the economic pressures of today.

We can start with the big numbers. Total revenue for the quarter was $20.2 billion, up 21.1 percent from the year-ago period. Total costs, however, were $18.7 billion, an increase of 25 percent. All of that ultimately led to declines in operating income (down 13.7 percent), net income (down 45.6 percent), and EPS (down 47.2 percent to $1.15).

But nobody is here for the headline numbers, right? We love airlines for all the non-GAAP disclosures they also report, which give us much deeper insight into the firms’ overall performance.

Let’s start with fuel costs. They are, no pun intended, sky-high. Delta’s fuel costs were $4.35 billion for the quarter, an increase of — you may want an air sickness bag here — 69.3 percent. Delta’s average fuel cost per gallon was $3.80, compared to $2.25 one year ago. 

Figure 1, below, tracks average fuel costs for all six major U.S. airlines for the last three years. Right now we only have Delta’s numbers for Q3, although we’ll add the other five airlines as they file their earnings later this month. You can still see, however, that Delta’s average fuel costs are at least not rising as painfully as they were earlier this year.

Perhaps even more important for airline metrics are total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) and cost per available seat mile (CASM). Those metrics help analysts understand how much money an airline is making per passenger.

Figure 2, below, compares TRASM and CASM at Delta since the start of 2024. The good news is that TRASM (in blue) has exceeded CASM (in red) in every quarter — but look at the sharp upward trend for both lines since the start of this year. That coincides with the war in Iran spiking fuel costs, and the broader but milder inflation we’ve seen everywhere else lately.

So far, Delta seems to have been able to pass along those higher costs to passengers. Total passenger revenue rose 15 percent in Q3 to $15.53 billion. Main cabin ticket revenue specifically rose 12 percent, to $6.8 billion. If you’re a Delta customer, those are numbers to think about next time you’re sitting at the gate waiting for your flight.

But will Delta be able to maintain that continued growth when so many costs and other pressures are bearing down on the flying consumer? 

Well, consider one more metric that Calcbench tracks for you: forward guidance. Delta reported that too, and said it now expects full-year 2026 EPS to land at $5.10 to $5.60, and full year free cash flow of $2.5 billion.

We stared at those numbers for a moment and then quietly clicked on the “See Previous Period” tab to see what Delta’s guidance was three months ago, at the end of Q2. Delta was predicting full-year EPS of $6.50 to $7.50, and full-year free cash flow of at least $3 billion. 

That’s quite a drop in altitude in just three months. One wonders how low those numbers might be come next quarter.