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Oil - How did we do?
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Accelerated filers with fiscal year ends of 12/31/15 are finished filing now and Calcbench thought it appropriate to visit the Oil services note that we put out in mid December.

The piece was also picked up and written about in Fortune by Senior Editor Jennifer Reingold.

What we can say is that our overall industry forecast for revenue for the handful of firms that we estimated, was pretty darn close to the mark. The total revenues of our small sample was roughly $180.3. Our forecast was $182.3 billion for a difference of roughly $2 Billion or 1.1%.

There were a few notable hits (Chevron) and a few notable misses (Devon Energy). But overall we did pretty well as our industry forecast was pretty darn good.

The data in the table below illustrates the point (Totals at the bottom).

Company FORECAST Revenue 4th Quarter 2015 Actual Revenue 4th Q 2015 % Diff. (Actual / Forecast) $ Diff. (Actual minus Forecast)
Exxon Mobil Corp $56,737,640,668 $57,691,000,000 -1.7% -$953,359,332
Chevron Corp $28,082,095,317 $28,014,000,000 0.2% $68,095,317
Phillips 66 $22,035,627,767 $21,893,000,000 0.7% $142,627,767
Valero Energy Corp/TX $19,451,452,223 $18,777,000,000 3.6% $674,452,223
Marathon Petroleum Corp $16,657,670,311 $15,607,000,000 6.7% $1,050,670,311
Conocophillips $6,413,326,385 $6,293,000,000 1.9% $120,326,385
Tesoro Corp /NEW/ $6,694,136,074 $6,273,000,000 6.7% $421,136,074
Devon Energy Corp/DE $3,819,362,596 $2,886,000,000 32.3% $933,362,596
Chesapeake Energy Corp $2,812,981,818 $2,649,000,000 6.2% $163,981,818
Eog Resources Inc $2,031,772,559 $1,796,761,000 13.1% $235,011,559
PBF Energy Inc. $2,809,298,976 $3,360,489,000 -16.4% -$551,190,024
Occidental Petroleum Corp /DE/ $2,890,883,606 $2,806,000,000 3.0% $84,883,606
HollyFrontier Corp $3,114,814,217 $2,943,559,000 5.8% $171,255,217
Anadarko Petroleum Corp $1,279,407,007 $2,053,000,000 -37.7% -$773,592,993
Western Refining, Inc. $2,192,698,902 $2,070,324,000 5.9% $122,374,902
Apache Corp $1,230,261,625 $1,263,000,000 -2.6% -$32,738,375
Marathon Oil Corp $1,446,406,765 $1,475,000,000 -1.9% -$28,593,235
Hess Corp $1,412,736,584 $1,474,000,000 -4.2% -$61,263,416
Cvr Energy Inc $1,232,844,254 $1,010,600,000 22.0% $222,244,254
Total $182,345,417,653 $180,335,733,000 1.1% $2,009,684,653

We stand by our conclusion that the smart use of data can make anyone look better. Even a bunch of jokers like us.


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