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Calcbench’s Forecast
Monday, December 14, 2015

Here is another fantastic application of XBRL based financial analysis. We are going to use the last 15 quarters of revenues and the last 15 quarters of NYMEX crude futures prices to predict the fourth quarter revenues of Oil services firms.

The cynic says… ‘At $35-$40 dollars a barrel, these firms are clearly losing sales compared to last year, why do this?

The smart money says, not all firms are exposed the same way. You need to understand the past in order to forecast the future with context

Please note, the last column in the table is the dollar difference in SALES from the actual fourth quarter of 2014 to the FORECAST Sales number in 2015. So in the case where you see $25 Billion dollars in the loss column that is a difference of sales from one year to the next. And it is NOT a typo.

Without further ado… Here is the Calcbench forecast for fourth quarter sales for the top 20 Oil Services firms

Company FORECAST Revenue 4th Quarter 2015 ACTUAL revenue 4th Quarter 2014 % Change YoY FORECAST $ LOSS YoY
Exxon Mobil Corp $56,737,640,668 $82,621,000,000 -31.3% $25,883,359,332
Chevron Corp $28,082,095,317 $42,111,000,000 -33.3% $14,028,904,683
Phillips 66 $22,035,627,767 $34,963,000,000 -37.0% $12,927,372,233
Valero Energy Corp/TX $19,451,452,223 $27,859,000,000 -30.2% $8,407,547,777
Marathon Petroleum Corp $16,657,670,311 $22,250,000,000 -25.1% $5,592,329,689
Conocophillips $6,413,326,385 $11,208,000,000 -42.8% $4,794,673,615
Tesoro Corp /NEW/ $6,694,136,074 $8,445,000,000 -20.7% $1,750,863,926
Devon Energy Corp/DE $3,819,362,596 $5,995,000,000 -36.3% $2,175,637,404
Chesapeake Energy Corp $2,812,981,818 $5,050,000,000 -44.3% $2,237,018,182
Eog Resources Inc $2,031,772,559 $4,645,497,000 -56.3% $2,613,724,441
PBF Energy Inc. $2,809,298,976 $4,520,000,000 -37.8% $1,710,701,024
Occidental Petroleum Corp /DE/ $2,890,883,606 $4,307,000,000 -32.9% $1,416,116,394
HollyFrontier Corp $3,114,814,217 $4,283,119,000 -27.3% $1,168,304,783
Anadarko Petroleum Corp $1,279,407,007 $3,177,000,000 -59.7% $1,897,592,993
Western Refining, Inc. $2,192,698,902 $3,024,816,000 -27.5% $832,117,098
Apache Corp $1,230,261,625 $2,952,000,000 -58.3% $1,721,738,375
Marathon Oil Corp $1,446,406,765 $2,497,000,000 -42.1% $1,050,593,235
Hess Corp $1,412,736,584 $2,374,000,000 -40.5% $961,263,416
Cvr Energy Inc $1,232,844,254 $1,841,800,000 -33.1% $608,955,746
CVR Refining, LP $1,188,589,751 $1,772,800,000 -33.0% $584,210,249
Delek US Holdings, Inc. $1,237,905,414 $1,761,700,000 -29.7% $523,794,586

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